# 52% of the BTC Supply is now in the Red

_Historically, what have future returns looked like at these levels?_

July 1, 2026 • Michael Nadeau

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# 52% of the BTC Supply is now in the Red

## Historically, what have future returns looked like at these levels?

Michael Nadeau
 July 01, 2026

 Hello readers,

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 Back to business.

 We’re now nearly 9 months into the bear market. BTC is trading *below* its 200 WMA and near a cycle low (-53%). Leverage has been squeezed out of the market. Greed is out of style. And social interest is near all-time lows.

 As this plays out, the bulls have gone into hiding. And the prevailing narrative has shifted to “one more flush.”

 In this week’s report, we provide a data-driven “cycle awareness” and macro update while assessing whether risk is shifting to the upside vs the downside.

 Topics covered:

- [“Cycle Awareness” KPI Update](#cycle-awareness-kpi-update)

- [Macro Update](#macro-update)

- [Closing Thoughts & Portfolio Management](#closing-thoughts-portfolio-manageme)

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# “Cycle Awareness” KPI Update

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