# BTC: Cycle Awareness Update 

_What's the onchain data signaling about what comes next?_

June 17, 2026 • Michael Nadeau

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# BTC: Cycle Awareness Update

## What's the onchain data signaling about what comes next?

Michael Nadeau
 June 17, 2026

 Hello readers,

 We’re now 8.5 months and three 25% + corrections into the ‘26 bear market. BTC has survived the initial “Strategy is selling BTC” fear. It’s held the 200 WMA ($62k). And we’ve now rallied 12% off the June 5th low.

 But has the smoke fully cleared? Is it time to go all-in?

 In this week’s edition of TDR Pro, we provide a timely “Cycle Awareness” update while sharing key takeaways along the way.

 Topics covered:

- [Realized Loss Analysis](#realized-loss-analysis)

- [Realized Cap Analysis](#realized-cap-analysis)

- [Market Structure Update](#market-structure-update)

- [Current Conditions Update](#current-conditions-update)

- [BTC vs Nasdaq & Gold](#btc-vs-nasdaq-gold)

- [Closing Thoughts & Portfolio Management](#closing-thoughts-portfolio-manageme)

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# Realized Loss Analysis

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-  • Macro + onchain data "cycle awareness" updates
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