# BTC Market Structure is Broken

_What comes next?_

November 19, 2025 • Michael Nadeau

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# BTC Market Structure is Broken

## What comes next?

Michael Nadeau
 November 19, 2025

 Hello readers,

 Bitcoin just logged its first weekly close below the 50-week moving average since the start of 2023. It’s a significant level that has historically separated healthy uptrends from full-fledged bear markets. The recent move also triggered the first death cross (50-day SMA dipping below the 200-day) since May, confirming a loss in short-term momentum.

 Taken together, these signals suggest something *deeper* than a standard pullback. Market structure is weakening. And it’s now forcing a conversation about risk management.

 In this week’s report, we walk through why the probability is shifting toward a broader cyclical downturn.

 Topics covered:

- [Broken Momentum](#broken-momentum)

- [Market Structure](#market-structure)

- [Portfolio Management](#portfolio-management)

***Disclaimer:**** Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice. *

[](https://bit-digital.com/?utm_source=thedefireport.beehiiv.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=btc-market-structure-is-broken)The DeFi Report is powered by BIT Digital, the leading global platform for high-performance computing infrastructure and one of the largest ETH treasury firms. NASDAQ: BTBT

 Let’s go.

# Broken Momentum

##### 50-Week Moving Average

Data: The DeFi Report

 As shown above (green arrows), Bitcoin typically *holds the 50-week moving average* during healthy bull-market corrections. It’s been one of the most reliable “trend-health” barometers across cycles.

 But in each of the last two cycles, when BTC *lost* the 50-week moving average decisively (red arrows), it wasn’t just another dip — it was an* early warning* that the market structure was breaking down. Long-term holders start distributing. Selling pressure builds. And market psychology flips from *buy-the-dip* to *manage-the-drawdown*.

 That same pattern is now emerging again.

##### 2017 Cycle

 After the ‘17 cycle peak in December, it took over *6 months* to break below the 50-week moving average. The market then attempted to reclaim the level a few months later, but ultimately failed.

 BTC then bounced around the 50 WMA for a few years before breaking out again in the spring of 2020.

##### 2021 Cycle

 After the ‘21 cycle peak in November, the deterioration was much faster. It took only *six weeks* for BTC to drop below the 50 WMA. We made a run at reclaiming it three months later, which ultimately failed.

 BTC then dropped into a deep bear market before reclaiming the 50 WMA in early ‘23.

##### 2025 Cycle

 That takes us to today. We’ve been in a bull market structure since early ‘23, successfully testing the 50 WMA three times in the process.

 The fourth test is different.

 BTC has now broken sharply below the 50 WMA ($102.9k), and it did so *just five weeks* after making new cycle highs. That speed — combined with the decisive nature of the breakdown — aligns more closely with the *early stages* of prior bear-market transitions than with standard bull-market corrections.

##### What’s next?

 $90k appears to be serving as support at the moment.

 We think a bounce back toward the 50 WMA ($102.9k) is likely in the coming weeks/months. This could serve as the final critical test for BTC. If it can reclaim the 50 WMA and turn it into support, the bull market *could* stay intact.

 However, that is not our base case.

 Why?

# Market Structure

 Market structure is broken under the hood.

##### Supply Held by Long-Term Holders

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