# Everyone's Bullish.

_Time to be bearish?_

August 13, 2025 • Michael Nadeau

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# Everyone's Bullish.

## Time to be bearish?

Michael Nadeau
 August 13, 2025

 Hello readers,

 Tom Lee is calling for $15k ETH. Bonk now has a “Treasury Company.” Eric Trump is dancing on short-sellers’ graves. Corporate deal flow and public listings are on fire. Eight altcoin ETFs are set to be approved by year's end. Greed is for dinner.

 The next thing we know, the Uber driver is going to be telling me about XRP “replacing the SWIFT network.”

*Long-time readers know that we like to zig when everyone else is zagging. *

 Everyone’s bullish. Does that mean we need to turn *bearish*?

 We investigate in this week’s market update.

 Topics covered:

- [Liquidity Update](#global-liquidity-update)

- [BTC Dominance & Altcoins](#btc-dominance-altcoins)

- [Sentiment](#btc-dominance)

- [Risks](#risks)

- [Portfolio Management](#portfolio-management)

***Disclaimer:**** Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice. *

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 Let’s go.

# Global Liquidity Update

Data: Cross Border Capital

 Liquidity growth is slowing, but the trend line is still up. The three-month annualized expansion rate slowed to 6.7% (down from 8.8% last month).

 Given the historical 3-month lag between global liquidity and risk assets, we *do not see any storm clouds on the horizon*.

 If we see the trend line fully roll over (as we saw in Q4 of last year), we will be looking for conditions to tighten in the following months. We’re not there yet.

 [TDR Pro members will receive the update when this occurs.]

 Now. Let’s take a look at some data, sentiment indicators, and risk factors. We’ll wrap with changes to the portfolio this week.

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