Forecasting the BTC Cycle Low

+ views on macro, altcoins, and crypto equities

April 1, 2026 • Michael Nadeau
Forecasting the BTC Cycle Low

Hello readers,

Risk assets continue to bleed as the war in Iran drags on. At the time of writing, BTC is down 46.6% from prior cycle highs. The S&P 500 is now down 6.7%, and the Nasdaq is down 9.8%, having reclaimed its 200-day moving average after yesterday's 3.8% rally.

Meanwhile, six assets on The Watch List are currently trading within our “fair value” range, and three assets are in “deep value.”

In this week’s report, we share our current views on macro/the war and analyze the relationship between BTC, crypto equities, and altcoins as we forecast what the bottom could look like.

The DeFi Report is powered by Galaxy: helping the world invest, build, and transform — relentlessly.

Galaxy is a global leader in digital assets and data center infrastructure, delivering institutional solutions across trading, asset management, staking, custody, and tokenization. Alongside financial services, Galaxy builds AI- and HPC-ready data centers, including 1.6 GW of approved power at its Helios campus, built for scale through every cycle.

Let’s go.

Macro/War in Iran

TDR Pro

Upgrade to finish reading the report.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

TDR Pro Members Receive:

  • • Macro + onchain data "cycle awareness" updates
  • • Full access to our portfolio positions
  • • Email notifications when we make changes
  • • Average entry price for each position
  • • % of the portfolio in each position (including cash)
  • • Weekly update on what we are buying/selling
  • • Clear thesis & supporting analysis for any portfolio changes