52% of the BTC Supply is now in the Red

Historically, what have future returns looked like at these levels?

July 1, 2026 • Michael Nadeau
52% of the BTC Supply is now in the Red

Hello readers,

As a reminder, we are currently offering one month free to new members. And if you’re already on our monthly plan and would like to lock in at a 20% discount for one year ($16.67/month), you can do so here.

Back to business.

We’re now nearly 9 months into the bear market. BTC is trading below its 200 WMA and near a cycle low (-53%). Leverage has been squeezed out of the market. Greed is out of style. And social interest is near all-time lows.

As this plays out, the bulls have gone into hiding. And the prevailing narrative has shifted to “one more flush.”

In this week’s report, we provide a data-driven “cycle awareness” and macro update while assessing whether risk is shifting to the upside vs the downside.

The DeFi Report is powered by Galaxy: helping the world invest, build, and transform — relentlessly.

With GalaxyOne Staking, you can earn up to an estimated 6.50% in variable staking rewards with 0% platform commission through 2026*. While other platforms can charge up to 35% in commission, GalaxyOne charges 0% through the rest of the year. Other fees may apply, see terms.

Let’s go.

“Cycle Awareness” KPI Update

TDR Pro

Upgrade to finish reading the report.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

TDR Pro Members Receive:

  • • Macro + onchain data "cycle awareness" updates
  • • Full access to our portfolio positions
  • • Email notifications when we make changes
  • • Average entry price for each position
  • • % of the portfolio in each position (including cash)
  • • Weekly update on what we are buying/selling
  • • Clear thesis & supporting analysis for any portfolio changes