Hello readers,

Bitcoin just logged its first weekly close below the 50-week moving average since the start of 2023. It’s a significant level that has historically separated healthy uptrends from full-fledged bear markets. The recent move also triggered the first death cross (50-day SMA dipping below the 200-day) since May, confirming a loss in short-term momentum.

Taken together, these signals suggest something deeper than a standard pullback. Market structure is weakening. And it’s now forcing a conversation about risk management.

In this week’s report, we walk through why the probability is shifting toward a broader cyclical downturn.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

Let’s go.

Broken Momentum

50-Week Moving Average

As shown above (green arrows), Bitcoin typically holds the 50-week moving average during healthy bull-market corrections. It’s been one of the most reliable “trend-health” barometers across cycles.

But in each of the last two cycles, when BTC lost the 50-week moving average decisively (red arrows), it wasn’t just another dip — it was an early warning that the market structure was breaking down. Long-term holders start distributing. Selling pressure builds. And market psychology flips from buy-the-dip to manage-the-drawdown.

That same pattern is now emerging again.

2017 Cycle

After the ‘17 cycle peak in December, it took over 6 months to break below the 50-week moving average. The market then attempted to reclaim the level a few months later, but ultimately failed.

BTC then bounced around the 50 WMA for a few years before breaking out again in the spring of 2020.

2021 Cycle

After the ‘21 cycle peak in November, the deterioration was much faster. It took only six weeks for BTC to drop below the 50 WMA. We made a run at reclaiming it three months later, which ultimately failed.

BTC then dropped into a deep bear market before reclaiming the 50 WMA in early ‘23.

2025 Cycle

That takes us to today. We’ve been in a bull market structure since early ‘23, successfully testing the 50 WMA three times in the process.

The fourth test is different.

BTC has now broken sharply below the 50 WMA ($102.9k), and it did so just five weeks after making new cycle highs. That speed — combined with the decisive nature of the breakdown — aligns more closely with the early stages of prior bear-market transitions than with standard bull-market corrections.

What’s next?

$90k appears to be serving as support at the moment.

We think a bounce back toward the 50 WMA ($102.9k) is likely in the coming weeks/months. This could serve as the final critical test for BTC. If it can reclaim the 50 WMA and turn it into support, the bull market could stay intact.

However, that is not our base case.

Why?

Market Structure

Market structure is broken under the hood.

Supply Held by Long-Term Holders